Will the WHO Declare a New Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization declares a new “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) on or before December 31, 2026.

A PHEIC is a formal declaration by the WHO Director-General, under the International Health Regulations, that an extraordinary public health event is occurring which risks international spread and requires a coordinated global response. For this market, we specifically require a new PHEIC declaration in the timeframe – meaning an emergency that is declared between 2024 and 2026. (Ongoing PHEICs that were declared prior to 2024, such as the existing one on polio, do not count as “new.”)

Examples that would count include the WHO DG publicly declaring an outbreak (e.g. a novel influenza strain, a viral hemorrhagic fever outbreak, etc.) as a PHEIC during 2024, 2025, or 2026. The declaration is typically made after an Emergency Committee meeting and announced via WHO press release. If at least one such declaration is made by the end of 2026, the market resolves Yes. If no new PHEIC is declared in that period, it resolves No.

It doesn’t matter which disease or how many PHEICs – one is enough for “Yes.” If a PHEIC declared in 2026 is later rescinded, it still counts (the focus is on it being declared). We exclude mere extensions of pre-existing PHEICs; it must be a new emergency not already under a PHEIC status before 2024.