Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
By placing order, you agree to Terms & Conditions
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2026, the current ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern the country.
There must be broad consensus of credible reporting that the core structures of the Islamic Republic (such as the Supreme Leader’s office, Guardian Council, and IRGC under clerical control) have been dissolved or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a fundamentally different governing authority taking power.
Routine political events (e.g. elections, reforms, or a normal leadership succession after Ayatollah Khamenei) do not count. Internal power shifts or coups that preserve the Islamic Republic’s fundamental structure also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity – for example, the formation of a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or the adoption of a new constitution replacing the Islamic Republic – would count as the regime “falling”. Partial loss of territory or civil unrest is insufficient unless it leads to the regime losing de facto sovereign control over the majority of Iran’s population.
If no such regime collapse occurs by the end of 2026, the market will resolve to No.
News
Polymarket yes odds jump to 22.5% on U.S.–Iran invasion bet after report - Blockchain.News
Polymarket’s binary contract “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” jumped to 22.5% Yes (from 11.5%) after a report that Israel is preparing for a potential U.S.–Iran escalation next week, with No at 77.5% and about $43.44 million in volume.
blockchain.newsTehran billboard suggests Trump as next target amid US-Iran tensions
A new billboard in central Tehran depicts U.S. President Donald Trump in a coffin with the slogan “We Kill Trump,” signaling intensified Iranian threats amid ongoing U.S.–Iran hostilities and contributing to reduced optimism and market skepticism about a potential U.S.–Iran deal in 2026.
Estefano GomezCuba Falling: Did Trump Just Set a Timeline? – PJ Media
Trump hinted on Fox News of a possible “two months” window for Cuba, suggesting upcoming developments but not endorsing a Venezuelan-scale invasion, while critics argue his timing is uncertain and the regime remains defiant; U.S. planning has included high-level military options being discussed (including an Army-led action) but no action is imminent, with competing factors like Iran operations and World Cup timing influencing timing.
Sarah AndersonIran Voids Peace Deal After US Launches Sixth Night Strikes
Iran voided the peace deal after a sixth consecutive night of U.S. strikes, declaring an existential war, escalating regional threats while Iran warned of crushing regional infrastructure if attacked and Washington reinstated a naval blockade on Hormuz, with no disclosed casualty figures.
Dilnaz ShaikhIran calls for strikes on US leaders, urges treaty withdrawals
Iranian figure Hassan Rahimpour Azghadi called for strikes on U.S. leaders and withdrawal from treaties amid escalating 2026 U.S.-Iran tensions following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s top leaders, signaling a shift toward direct retaliation and reducing prospects for a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026 (with market odds around 26% for a deal).
Estefano GomezPape on Iran: 'We're the Titanic About to Hit Iceberg'; Thousands of Casualties Possible | Newsmax.com
Political scientist Robert Pape warns that the Iran conflict is entering a dangerous “Stage Three” of escalation, with a high (about 70%) likelihood of U.S. ground operations along Iran’s coast and the potential for thousands of American casualties, as Iran-backed attacks threaten Gulf energy chokepoints, expand to the Red Sea, and suggest a broader regional war unless political dynamics change.
Iran no longer a 'very strong, powerful terrorist state' after Operation Epic Fury, Leavitt says - The Israel Chronicle News
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Iran is no longer the formidable terrorist state it once was after Operation Epic Fury, asserting Iran’s leadership is weakened and still engaging with the US but that Tehran violated the MoU by firing on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which justified renewed US strikes and ongoing American willingness to act diplomatically or militarily as needed.
Daniel DePetris: The U.S. and Iran are back at war, leaving Trump ever-fewer options – Twin Cities
The article argues that the U.S. and Iran are once again at war with ongoing offensives and a fragile, stalemated diplomacy, as Iran seeks to control the Strait of Hormuz and regional shipping while the U.S. weighs a stronger military option and stalled negotiations for a comprehensive peace accord, leaving Trump’s approach oscillating between threats, tentative diplomacy, and the risk of escalation.
Daniel DePetrisPolymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claim - Blockchain.News
Polymarket’s contract on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” jumped to 23.5% Yes (from 11.5%) after Iran’s Guards claimed to have struck a U.S. base in Jordan, with about $43 million in volume and the resolution date set for December 31, 2026, while No remained the leading outcome at 76.5%.
blockchain.newsDaniel DePetris: The U.S. and Iran are back at war, leaving Trump ever-fewer options – Twin Cities - Iran
The article argues that the U.S. and Iran have effectively returned to open conflict with escalating hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz, a fragile détente from a mid-June memorandum fading, Iran asserting control over the strait and striking regional targets, and President Trump signaling a tougher, potentially militarized approach while diplomacy remains moribund and a mutually acceptable peace accord seems unlikely.