Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
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Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2026, the current ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern the country.
There must be broad consensus of credible reporting that the core structures of the Islamic Republic (such as the Supreme Leader’s office, Guardian Council, and IRGC under clerical control) have been dissolved or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a fundamentally different governing authority taking power.
Routine political events (e.g. elections, reforms, or a normal leadership succession after Ayatollah Khamenei) do not count. Internal power shifts or coups that preserve the Islamic Republic’s fundamental structure also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity – for example, the formation of a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or the adoption of a new constitution replacing the Islamic Republic – would count as the regime “falling”. Partial loss of territory or civil unrest is insufficient unless it leads to the regime losing de facto sovereign control over the majority of Iran’s population.
If no such regime collapse occurs by the end of 2026, the market will resolve to No.
News
Anti-government protests spread in Iran: Supreme Leader warns protesters
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that the government will not yield to the ongoing anti-government protests, labeling demonstrators as "vandals" and "saboteurs" in a recent televised address.
Iran protests: 'People are more angry and determined now'
Mass protests have erupted across Iran, fueled by widespread economic and political discontent, with demonstrators from diverse backgrounds calling for the end of the Islamic Republic and expressing their anger and determination against the regime, particularly following a recent strike over the declining value of the currency.
'Iranians seek downfall of regime and a new system that respects dignity, freedom, and human rights'
Iranians are protesting against the regime, demanding its downfall and a new system that upholds dignity, freedom, and human rights, amidst threats of violent crackdowns from the government and economic grievances fueling the unrest.
Iran demonstrations against regime continue as ayatollah, state media rail against 'terrorist agents'
Protests in Iran, sparked by economic grievances and called for by exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi, continue despite a government-imposed communications blackout, with state media accusing "terrorist agents" of inciting violence, while Supreme Leader Khamenei threatens severe crackdowns on demonstrators.
The Associated Press · Posted: Jan 09, 2026 7:40 AM EST | Last Updated: 2 hours agoIran's supreme leader says protesters are 'ruining their own streets' to please Trump
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned recent protests against the government, suggesting that demonstrators were acting to please U.S. President Trump, while signaling a crackdown on dissent amid escalating unrest linked to the country's economic struggles, which has resulted in at least 42 deaths and over 2,270 arrests.
By The Associated PressIran supreme leader signals crackdown coming as protesters are 'ruining their own streets' for Trump
Iran's Supreme Leader has indicated a forthcoming crackdown on protesters, accusing them of damaging their own streets and suggesting their actions are benefiting former President Trump.