Will the Iranian Regime Fall by the End of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2026, the current ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern the country.

There must be broad consensus of credible reporting that the core structures of the Islamic Republic (such as the Supreme Leader’s office, Guardian Council, and IRGC under clerical control) have been dissolved or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a fundamentally different governing authority taking power.

Routine political events (e.g. elections, reforms, or a normal leadership succession after Ayatollah Khamenei) do not count. Internal power shifts or coups that preserve the Islamic Republic’s fundamental structure also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity – for example, the formation of a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or the adoption of a new constitution replacing the Islamic Republic – would count as the regime “falling”. Partial loss of territory or civil unrest is insufficient unless it leads to the regime losing de facto sovereign control over the majority of Iran’s population.

If no such regime collapse occurs by the end of 2026, the market will resolve to No.