Event Image
December 31, 2030
Vol: $3

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Outcome

%Chance

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

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Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).

“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.

If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.

News

2 days ago

Post-quantum cryptography: A strategic imperative for modernization | Federal News Network

PQC is now a core component of modernization, requiring cryptographic agility and resilient, cloud-native architectures integrated with AI and zero-trust initiatives to ensure long-term national security and mission readiness against advancing quantum threats.

2 days ago

Moody’s Flags Quantum Threat to Bitcoin and Digital Assets After Trump Orders – NBTC News

Moody’s warns that Trump’s executive orders accelerating quantum computing and post-quantum cryptography create a 2030 deadline for Bitcoin’s cryptographic agility, with heightened risk from “harvest now, decrypt later,” urging exchanges and custodians to migrate to quantum-resistant standards to maintain credit and regulatory resilience.

NBTC
2 days ago

China's Origin Wukong Quantum Computer: Dual Computing and Security Capabilities (2026)

China’s Origin Wukong superconducting quantum computer combines over 1 million quantum tasks with integrated post-quantum cryptography (PQC), delivering both powerful quantum computation and quantum-secure encryption in a live system already accessed by users in 192 countries, signaling a proactive, globally deployed advance in quantum-secure infrastructure and a potential leadership shift in the crypto-arms race.

2 days ago

Bitcoin Q-Day Recovery Proposal Aims to Let Users Prove Ownership After Quantum Attack - FSNN | Free Speech News Network

Project Eleven unveiled a post-quantum recovery concept that lets wallet owners prove ownership after Q-Day by demonstrating control of a wallet’s parent key through a zero-knowledge–based derivation proof (without revealing the private key), developed with Jim Posen of Binius, building on signature lifting, but the prototype is unaudited and requires blockchain protocol support before use.

News Room
2 days ago

US Government Makes $2 Billion Bet on Quantum Computing as Threat to Bitcoin Grows - BitRss - Crypto World News

The article reports that the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to invest $2 billion in quantum chip foundries and startups, framing it as a proactive measure against the looming threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin.

2 days ago

The U.S. Just Set an Aggressive Post-Quantum Deadline, and Its Reach Extends Far Beyond American Borders

The article explains that Executive Order 14412 mandates U.S. federal agencies to transition to NIST-standardized post-quantum cryptography (PQC) by 2030–2031, extends requirements to covered contractors via FAR rule within 180 days, and directs U.S. officials to promote PQC adoption internationally, with Securosys highlighting HSM readiness and offering a PQC Sandbox to test and migrate to PQC algorithms.

Martina Alig
2 days ago

Post‑quantum ZKP recovery proposal would let Bitcoin users prove ownership after a Q‑Day attack - Inside Crypto

Project Eleven, with Jim Posen, has proposed a post-quantum ZKP-based recovery method for Bitcoin that lets owners prove control of their parent HDWallet key to transfer funds to a quantum-resistant wallet after a Q-Day attack, without exposing the parent key; the approach uses signature lifting via Binius, aims to address potential quantum-era losses around 2030–2033, and complements ongoing BIP-360 developments and early testnet implementations to prepare for widespread migration.

2 days ago

Quantinuum Just Struck a New Deal with Rolls-Royce. What That Means for QNT Stock Here.

Quantinuum (QNT) is expanding beyond research into commercial quantum applications with a multiyear Rolls-Royce–led collaboration alongside Riverlane and the University of Edinburgh, while facing volatile stock momentum, large losses and rising revenue visibility through government partnerships and analyst bullish expectations, including positive coverage from Morgan Stanley, UBS, and JPMorgan with high price targets.

Anushka Dutta
2 days ago

Project Eleven Develops Cryptographic Solution for Bitcoin’s Quantum Future - Crypto Economy

Project Eleven unveiled a quantum-resilient cryptographic technique that proves wallet ownership via a key derivation path (without exposing the master key), developed with Binius and Jim Posen, highlighting ongoing efforts to secure Bitcoin against quantum attacks amid standards updates (BIP-360) and rising urgency as estimates suggest millions of Bitcoins could be at risk if users don’t migrate to post-quantum addresses.

2 days ago

Bitcoin Q-Day Recovery Proposal Bypasses Quantum Hacks in 243 Milliseconds

Project Eleven and Binius’ Jim Posen propose an unaudited post-quantum zero-knowledge proof leveraging a Bitcoin wallet’s BIP-32 tree to verifiably prove ownership after Q-Day, enabling 243-millisecond recovery on a MacBook Air, but the system is not yet deployable and requires protocol-level integration and broad adoption by miners and core developers.

Comments (1)

@multifun

Reasoning
Bought
13 Yesshares @ 0.23¢

6mo ago

AI will make it work