Event Image
December 31, 2030
Vol: $3

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Outcome

%Chance

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

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Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).

“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.

If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.

News

about 9 hours ago

Cloudflare ‘actively adjusting’ quantum priorities in wake of Google warning | CSO Online

Cloudflare is actively adjusting its post-quantum cryptography plans in response to Google's accelerated PQC deadline to 2029, with preparations already advanced—including widespread ML-KEM protection and a planned deployment of post-quantum certificates by 2027—as NIST's 2030 phase-out of legacy cryptography looms.

by John Leyden Senior Writer
1 day ago

Der Quanten-Countdown: Weckruf für mehr Sicherheit | Computerwoche

Experts warn that the Q-Day marks when quantum computers could break current cryptography, forcing companies to act now to protect digital trust, as many firms lag behind with no or risky “wait-and-see” approaches despite widespread awareness.

von Jürgen Hill Chefreporter Future Technologies
1 day ago

OpenSSL Fixes RSA KEM Flaw Exposing Sensitive Data

OpenSSL’s April 2026 update fixed seven vulnerabilities, notably CVE-2026-31790 in RSA-based key encapsulation that could leak sensitive data via attacker-controlled public keys if not properly validated, and added mitigations plus six lower-severity flaws across multiple versions (3.0–3.6 and FIPS), with recommended key validation steps (EVP_PKEY_public_check) to reduce risk.

CyberTech Media Room
1 day ago

Cryptographers place $5,000 bet whether quantum will matter • The Register

Cryptographers are betting $5,000 on whether quantum computing will soon threaten current cryptography: despite skepticism about imminent impact, Google’s revised estimates suggest fewer qubits needed to break elliptic-curve cryptography, fueling urgency for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (targeting 2035 for widespread replacement) and prompting expert voices like Filippo Valsorda and Scott Aaronson to push for faster action.

Thomas Claburn
1 day ago

The Cybersecurity Readiness Gap: Why 90% of Companies Are Still Unprepared in 2026 - Security Boulevard

Despite heavy investments in 2026, 90% of organizations remain unprepared due to a persistent identity security failure (69% breach rate in 3 years and heavy dependence on passwords), a skills crisis with 60% lacking needed capabilities, pervasive AI-driven threats and data exfiltration risks, a looming quantum threat with 90% unprepared for post-quantum security, and a pronounced SME disadvantage, all contributing to widespread cyber risk and frequent breaches.

Karunakar Goud
1 day ago

Certes launches v7 platform with quantum-safe encryption across hybrid cloud and edge environments - IT Security News

Certes has released v7 of its Data Protection and Risk Mitigation platform, extending post-quantum (quantum-safe) encryption to hybrid cloud and edge environments to counter the harvest-now, decrypt-later threat and address emerging attack patterns seen with nation-state actors.

IT Security News Bot
1 day ago

Why is the timeline to quantum-proof everything constantly shrinking? | CyberScoop

The article reports that accelerating timelines to quantum-proof encryption are driven by research showing that quantum computers capable of breaking current encryption could require as few as 10,000 qubits, not millions, due to advances in neutral-atom hardware and smarter algorithms, prompting major players like Google to push faster adoption of post-quantum cryptography amid concerns of “harvest now, decrypt later” and rising quantum breakthroughs, especially from China.

djohnson
1 day ago

Algorand is the only major L1 with a post-quantum transaction on mainnet with 140,000+ quantum-resistant transactions. Algorand shipped their first post-quantum update in 2022 far before anyone was talking about it. They have Chris Peikart, Head of Research, a world leader in lattices/post-quantum. – CoinSpectator – Real-time Cryptocurrency News

Algorand has led in quantum resilience by adopting Falcon signatures, executed the first quantum-resistant mainnet transaction in 2025, and has 140,000+ quantum-resistant transactions, with key researchers like Chris Peikert contributing to its post-quantum cryptography efforts.

CSTeam
1 day ago

Cloudflare ускоряет переход к постквантовой защите интернета к 2029 году

Cloudflare планирует полностью перейти на постквантовую криптографию, включая защиту аутентификации, к 2029 году, уже внедряя постквантовое шифрование в большинстве продуктов и требуя миграции у клиентов и правительств.

Darth Sahara
1 day ago

QNu Labs Validates Real-World Performance of ARMOS QKD in Independent Global Study with VIAVI

QNu Labs, in collaboration with VIAVI, validated ARMOS QKD’s real-world performance over 200 km of telecom fiber with sub-4% QBER, secure key generation up to 8,000 bits/s at ~50 km and ~200 bits/s at 200 km, seamless coexistence with 10 Gbps classical traffic, autonomous fault recovery, and a decoy-state DPS protocol extending reach to 40 dB loss, demonstrating deployment-ready quantum-safe communication.

RA Editorial Desk

Comments (1)

@multifun

Reasoning
Bought
13 Yesshares @ 0.23¢

2mo ago

AI will make it work