Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Outcome
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Outcome
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Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).
“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.
If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.
News
What Impact Will Quantum Computing Have on National Security Strategies? | Women in Tech Network
Quantum computing poses significant threats to national security by potentially breaking current encryption methods, necessitating the adoption of quantum-resistant technologies, enhancing cyber defense capabilities, disrupting digital communications, and prompting a reevaluation of international policies and nuclear security.
Quantum-Resistant Identity and Access Management in Model Contexts - Security Boulevard
The article discusses the challenges of implementing quantum-resistant identity and access management in Model Context Protocol (mcp) environments, emphasizing the need for new security testing approaches that account for contextual understanding and the dynamic nature of AI-driven systems.
Read the Gopher Security's Quantum Safety BlogSimulating fermions with a digital quantum computer | Nature Reviews Physics
The article reviews methods for encoding fermionic degrees of freedom into qubits, highlighting the potential of digital quantum computers to simulate complex physical systems that involve fermions, which are challenging to compute classically.
Breaking Bitcoin would require 1.9 billion qubits. The best quantum computer today has a few thousand. So where’s the real risk? – CoinSpectator – Real-time Cryptocurrency News
Breaking Bitcoin's security would require 1.9 billion qubits, while current quantum computers only have a few thousand, making the immediate risk low; however, the "harvest now, decrypt later" strategy poses a potential threat to all digital encryption, including Bitcoin, particularly for older transactions with exposed public keys.
CSTeamWhy Are People Scared That Quantum Will Kill Crypto? | WEEX Crypto News
The article argues that rather than posing a threat to cryptocurrency, quantum technology represents an evolution in security infrastructure, enabling blockchain to enhance its focus on governance and collaboration while improving cryptographic methods.
Quantum Computing Could Put $440 Billion in Bitcoin at Risk - What Investors Need to Know - CoinCentral
Quantum computing poses a potential threat to nearly 7 million bitcoins, valued at approximately $440 billion, due to vulnerabilities in early Bitcoin transaction structures, leading to a divided community on whether to implement protective measures or uphold the principle of "code is law."
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