
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).
“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.
If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.
News
Charles Hoskinson Warns Quantum Computers Could Break Crypto by 2033, “Over 50%” Probability
Charles Hoskinson warns there is a greater than 50% chance that commercial quantum computers capable of breaking current cryptographic security could emerge before 2033, with Cardano actively developing quantum-resistant, lattice-based cryptography and planning to integrate U.S. federal quantum-resistance standards (FIPS 203–206), while noting potential future upgrades for Bitcoin to migrate toward quantum-resistant methods.
Rizwan AnsariHow to Prepare Your Organization for Q-Day
Quantum Day (Q-Day) is projected to occur within a few years when a quantum computer could break current encryption like RSA and ECC, prompting urgent preparations across government and industry as firms like Google, Amazon, and Palo Alto Networks push to deploy post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and overhaul cryptographic infrastructures.
Elodie CollinsIs Your AI Infrastructure Ready for 2026? A Guide to Post-Quantum Resilience
Post-quantum resilience will be a mandatory baseline for AI infrastructure by 2026, driven by harvest-now, decrypt-later threats, expanding attack surfaces from the Model Context Protocol, and the need for real-time asset inventory, algorithm/library visibility, and a risk-based prioritization approach.
Read the Gopher Security's Quantum Safety BlogLinux Kernel Had a Six-Year Bug That Let Anyone Steal SSH Host Keys and Root Passwords - Cyber Kendra
A six-year Linux kernel race condition (ssh-keysign-pwn) allowed any local unprivileged user to read SSH host keys and /etc/shadow by exploiting a transient NULL mm state during process exit; patches were released May 14, 2026, with Linus Torvalds applying the fix in the mainline, advising kernel updates, host-key rotation, and potential password resets for exposed accounts.
Is Mythos the real threat—or is our lack of preparedness?
Anthropic’s Claude Mythos demonstrated rapid vulnerability discovery and exploitability, prompting Indian regulators to push for a national AI cyber-resilience framework—including sovereign access, OEM accountability, AI-augmented defense, and sector-wide cyber drills—while stressing that India’s risk lies in unpreparedness rather than Mythos itself.
Shraddha GoledNIST seeks information on updating its Cybersecurity Framework | CSO Online
NIST is seeking public comments to inform a planned revision of the Cybersecurity Framework (first released in 2014 and last updated in 2018), focusing on improving its effectiveness, risk assessment and metrics, alignment with other NIST resources and non-NIST frameworks, and addressing supply-chain cybersecurity needs, while GAO notes voluntary adoption and lack of metrics and implementation guidance as barriers.
by Cynthia Brumfield Contributing WriterRaising the bar: Quality, shared responsibility, and the future of GitHub's bug bounty program - The GitHub Blog
GitHub is raising the bar for its bug bounty program by requiring validated submissions with a working proof-of-concept and demonstrated security impact (including AI-assisted findings), emphasizing validation over raw tool output, recognizing non-impact fixes with swag instead of bounty, and committing to faster triage, clearer communication, and continued collaboration with external researchers to enhance platform security.
Jarom BrownResearchers find new way to neutralize side-channel memory attacks | CSO Online
MIT researchers have developed DAGuise, a memory-request shaper that makes memory-timing side-channel attacks independent of secrets, offering about 12% better performance than prior mitigations, though it requires implementation by chipmakers and may impact system performance.
by John P. Mello Jr. ContributorMan Says He Used AI to Unlock Old Bitcoin Wallet Worth $400K
A pseudonymous man regained access to 5 Bitcoin worth about $400,000 by using Anthropic’s Claude to locate an old encrypted wallet backup on his college computer that, when combined with the rediscovered mnemonic, revealed the private keys; the wallet wasn’t cracked cryptographically, just unlocked via an appropriate older backup, and the funds have since been moved to a new address.
Kyle TorpeyMay 2026 Linux and cPanel CVE Storm: What…
A May 2026 security storm highlights multiple high-severity Linux kernel CVEs being actively exploited, plus a critical, unauthenticated cPanel/WHM authentication bypass (tracked publicly as CVE-2026-41940) that has already compromised over 1.5 million exposed servers, with rapid patching required and evolving post-exploitation threats.
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