
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
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Outcome
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Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).
“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.
If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.
News
Quantum computers may break today’s encryption much sooner than scientists expected
Researchers are racing to build larger quantum computers and refine algorithms, with IBM pursuing early practical advantage this year and a fault-tolerant system by 2029, while estimates suggest quantum attacks could break current cryptography sooner than thought, prompting standards bodies to plan a migration away from vulnerable encryption by around 2035 in the US.
Craig CostelloQ-Day Is Coming: Major Crypto Upgrades in the Making
The article discusses upcoming major crypto network upgrades and their potential impact on market infrastructure and investment, emphasizing the importance of reviewing the approved prospectus and KID to understand risks before investing.
Quantum computers’ first killer apps are closer than you think
Quantum computing is approaching practical progress with diverse qubit technologies (ions, neutral atoms, superconductors, etc.), driven by leading groups (IBM, Atom Computing, Caltech) reaching over 1,000 qubits and even surpassing 6,000 qubits in a record array, but experts caution that scalable, widely practical applications remain years away, though mitigating breakthroughs in optimization and error correction could eventually enable more powerful capabilities and potential security implications for digital communications.
Zeeya MeraliZAWYA: Cisco unveils Universal Quantum Switch, paving the way for scalable quantum networks — TradingView News
Cisco announced the Cisco Universal Quantum Switch, a research prototype that can route quantum information across different encoding modalities at room temperature on existing telecom fiber with a patented conversion engine, enabling cross-technology quantum networking while preserving quantum states with low degradation, nano-second switching, and sub-1-watt power consumption.
BNB Chain Post-Quantum Test Exposes Data Limits!!
BNB Chain tested a post-quantum upgrade on BSC using ML-DSA-44 for signatures and pqSTARK for vote aggregation, proving technical readiness but revealing significant data overhead—signature sizes balloon to 2,420 bytes (and public keys to 1,312 bytes), native transfer TPS dropped about 40% and cross-region throughput fell from ~4,973 to ~2,997 TPS, while finality largely remained stable; overall, data-layer scaling remains the main hurdle before production use.
SamuelDefenders have months, not years, to prepare for AI-powered hacking
Defenders now must use engineered harnesses and architecture-wide defenses to counter AI-powered hacking, as mythos-style models can find vulnerabilities in small testbeds but struggle to deliver meaningful coverage across large codebases, prompting faster patching, network segmentation, and coordinated, multi-stage validation to keep pace with near-immediate attacker timelines.
Brian BuntzMicrosoft AI chief says human office jobs could be replaced in 18 months. Are you at risk? - The Economic Times
Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman warns that most white-collar jobs (including accounting, legal, marketing, and project management) could be automated within 12–18 months, with AI achieving human-level performance on many professional tasks and potentially coordinating workflows with AI agents in 2–3 years.
Trending DeskCan Post-Quantum Cryptography Give WDC an Edge in AI Data Security? — TradingView News
Western Digital is embedding post-quantum cryptography directly into its Ultrastar UltraSMR storage hardware (DC HC6100) with standards-aligned, quantum-resistant firmware signing and dual RSA-3072/ML-DSA-87 code signing, aiming to secure enterprise storage at the root of trust as AI/data security threats grow, while the company expands its HDD/Flash split and expects stronger NAND-driven AI demand, with Zacks rating a strong buy and rising earnings estimates.
Nord Quantique Secures $30 Million Investment, Achieving $1.4 Billion Pre-Money Valuation - Quantum Computing Report
Nord Quantique closed a $30 million growth equity round at a $1.4 billion pre-money valuation, supported by Canadian and DARPA funding to scale its bosonic, error-corrected superconducting quantum hardware toward 2030 deployment, with a strategic mix of investors including BDC, Fidelity Canada, Panache Ventures, and others.
Mohamed Abdel-KareemIBM, a company that leads the quantum computing industry, declared that quantum computing technology.. - MK
IBM asserts quantum computing has entered industrial use and is pursuing practical “quantum usefulness” with real-world applications (e.g., protein simulations, materials science, and finance), aims for error-resistant quantum computers by 2029, showcases collaborations with Yonsei University and Qunova, and plans to demonstrate quantum advantage this year while expanding Korea-U.S. partnerships and joint research.
JEONG Hojun jeong.hojun@mk.co.kr
