Event Image
December 31, 2026
Vol: $1

Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

Outcome

%Chance

Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

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Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to Yes if North Korea detonates a nuclear explosive device (nuclear weapon test) on or before December 31, 2026.

In practice, a “Yes” means that a nuclear test by the DPRK is detected and officially confirmed during the period 2024–2026. Such confirmation would typically come via seismic detection and analysis by international monitors (e.g. CTBTO/IMS), accompanied by acknowledgement from governments or the North Korean state media.

Any nuclear test – whether underground, atmospheric, or underwater – counts, as long as it’s clear that North Korea successfully set off a nuclear yield.

Regular ballistic missile launches without a nuclear warhead do not count, and neither would non-nuclear “subcritical” experiments. The test must involve an actual nuclear chain reaction (fission/fusion explosion). If North Korea does not conduct a confirmed nuclear test by the end of 2026, the market resolves No.

News

about 9 hours ago

Iran war updates: Ceasefire staggers amid disagreements

Israel’s prime minister authorized direct talks with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and establish relations as talks with the U.S. prepare in Washington, while the broader Iran war ceasefire faces strains from Israeli strikes, Iran’s actions around the Strait of Hormuz, and new attacks alleged by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

1 day ago

North Korea tests new cluster-bomb warhead & carbon-fibre bombs

North Korea tested a new cluster-bomb warhead on a ballistic missile, an electromagnetic weapon, carbon-fibre bombs, and a mobile short-range anti-aircraft missile system, according to KCNA.

Dharini Mudgal
1 day ago

Recriminations over Iran have heightened the risk of a break-up of NATO

Tensions from Iran's war have strained NATO, increasing the risk of a transatlantic rift as distrust and recriminations between Europe and the U.S. mount, prompting Europe to prepare for greater self-defense.

1 day ago

N. Korea's top diplomat tells China that Pyongyang vows to deepen bilateral ties | Yonhap News Agency

North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Pyongyang that Pyongyang will deepen China-North Korea ties for the peoples’ interests, praising a higher-level relation under Kim-Xi summit guidelines, with both sides agreeing to enhanced exchanges and to mark the 65th anniversary of their Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, signaling a sustained, ideology-based alignment despite international uncertainty.

Park Boram
1 day ago

Nordkorea meldet Test mit Streumunition - DER SPIEGEL

Nordkorea behauptet, mehrere neue Waffensysteme getestet zu haben, darunter ballistische Raketen mit Streumunition, Grafitbomben und elektromagnetische Waffen, während Seoul alarmiert blieb over possible threats and UN breach, noting Nordkorea is not party to the Oslo Convention on cluster munitions.

DER SPIEGEL
1 day ago

The world has got uranium poisoning

The article argues that although highly enriched uranium promises energy and security, it has repeatedly failed to deliver its ideals, with costly nuclear programs in Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan, ongoing Middle East tensions and Iran’s reduced but unresolved enrichment capabilities, and a broader critique of a so-called nuclear renaissance amid rising energy costs and geopolitical risk.

Tom Zoellner
1 day ago

Tensions en Asie : des "atouts spéciaux", la Corée du Nord teste de nouvelles armes conventionnelles de pointe - lindependant.fr

North Korea tested new conventional weapons this week, including a ballistic missile with a fragmentation warhead and an electromagnetic weapon, along with trials of carbon-fibre bombs and a short-range mobile anti-aircraft system, as Pyongyang seeks to showcase advanced military capabilities amid rising regional tensions, while China’s Wang Yi visits Pyongyang and there are rumors of a potential U.S.-North Korea summit during President Trump’s China trip.

Reuters
1 day ago

Will Iran help bottle up the nuclear genie? - CSMonitor.com

The CS Monitor Editorial argues that direct Iran-U.S. talks could yield a pivotal deal where Iran might concede not to pursue nuclear weapons, potentially restoring nonproliferation norms, though such a concession depends on regime survival calculations amid regional tensions, U.S. willingness to strike again if needed, and external actors like Israel and China influencing the outcome.

The Christian Science Monitor
1 day ago

NATO's Rutte warns of 'North Korea moment' if Iran talks stall | Just The News

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that prolonged Iran talks could produce a “North Korea moment” where Iran acquires nuclear capability, as the U.S. and Iran discuss a ceasefire and talks in Islamabad amid regional tensions involving Israel and Hezbollah.

1 day ago

IAEA chief to visit S. Korea next week for nuclear energy discussions | Yonhap News Agency

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi will visit Seoul for two days next week to discuss nuclear energy, North Korea, and related issues with South Korean officials, amid Seoul’s efforts to advance civilian nuclear capabilities and potential talks on nuclear safeguards for any future nuclear-powered submarines.

Kim Seung-yeon

Comments (1)

@JayR

3mo ago

Not happening