Event Image
December 31, 2026
Vol: $1

Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

Outcome

%Chance

Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

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Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to Yes if North Korea detonates a nuclear explosive device (nuclear weapon test) on or before December 31, 2026.

In practice, a “Yes” means that a nuclear test by the DPRK is detected and officially confirmed during the period 2024–2026. Such confirmation would typically come via seismic detection and analysis by international monitors (e.g. CTBTO/IMS), accompanied by acknowledgement from governments or the North Korean state media.

Any nuclear test – whether underground, atmospheric, or underwater – counts, as long as it’s clear that North Korea successfully set off a nuclear yield.

Regular ballistic missile launches without a nuclear warhead do not count, and neither would non-nuclear “subcritical” experiments. The test must involve an actual nuclear chain reaction (fission/fusion explosion). If North Korea does not conduct a confirmed nuclear test by the end of 2026, the market resolves No.

News

about 17 hours ago

(2nd LD) S. Korea, U.S. wrap up 1st day of security talks on nuclear-powered submarine | Yonhap News Agency

South Korea and the United States kicked off two-day security talks focused on implementing agreed-upon provisions from their leaders, including Seoul’s push to develop nuclear-powered submarines and related nuclear capabilities, with subsequent discussions to cover uranium enrichment, spent fuel reprocessing, and expanded shipbuilding cooperation.

Oh Seok-min
about 17 hours ago

LA Mayor Primary: Final Polls, Chances as Bass, Pratt, Raman Face Off - Newsweek

The final LA mayoral primary polls show a tight three-way race with Bass at 26%, Raman 25%, and Pratt 22%, while prediction markets still favor Bass at roughly two-thirds to three-quarters, undecided voters have collapsed to about 10%, and turnout dynamics will likely decide the runoff winner in a nonpartisan top-two system.

about 17 hours ago

National security adviser, U.S. under secretary of state to meet, likely to discuss Seoul's push for nuclear-powered submarines

National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac will meet U.S. Under Secretary of State Allison Hooker at the Blue House to discuss Seoul’s push to develop nuclear-powered submarines, including potential moves to enrich uranium and reprocess spent fuel, amid broader allied negotiations such as wartime operational control and follow-up talks on a 2025 summit agreement.

about 17 hours ago

Yuri Baranchik: THE KALININGRAD CRISIS AND THE SPLIT IN NATO - Pravda Poland

The article presents a Lansing Institute crisis scenario in which a rapid NATO member-state split—between a Radical Wing pushing immediate mobilization (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, UK) and a Pragmatic Wing seeking to avoid escalation (Germany, France, Italy), plus institutional “jokers” (Hungary, Turkey) and U.S. maneuvering to form a “Coalition of the willing” outside NATO—could paralyze Brussels within the first two days of a Suwalki corridor blitz, undermining NATO’s Article 5 unity and prompting nuclear risk and intense political bargaining.

about 17 hours ago

IAEA Chief Calls Iran Uranium Transfer 'Difficult but Not Impossible' — America Strikes

IAEA chief Grossi says transferring about 440 kg of Iran’s near-60% enriched uranium out of the country is technically feasible, even as Trump signals a possible deal within a week and Iran warns that Israeli strikes in Lebanon could derail talks, with the political path hinging on whether Tehran accepts removal (or blend-down) and whether Lebanon tensions can be separated from the nuclear diplomacy.

about 17 hours ago

Iran War: Iran Rug Pulls Trump by Suspending Talks Over Ceasefire Violations, Escalating with Demands to End Attacks in Gaza and West Bank, Threat to Close Hormuz and Choke Bab El-Mandab; More on How Hormuz Traffic Will Stay Low Even if "Deal" Agreed | naked capitalism

Iran suspended talks with the U.S. over ceasefire violations, demanding an end to Israeli attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, while signaling continued pressure that has already unsettled markets and complicates any return to normal Hormuz traffic even if a ceasefire deal is reached.

Yves Smith
about 17 hours ago

(LEAD) N. Korea's Kim visits key political school for party cadres on its 80th founding anniv. | Yonhap News Agency

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited the Central Cadres Training School of the Workers’ Party to mark its 80th founding anniversary, praising it as a strategic fortress for party existence and stressing its role in educating young cadres amid generational shifts, while attending a celebratory football match between the U-17 women’s team and Naegohyang FC.

Kim Soo-yeon
about 17 hours ago

US May Expand Nuclear Weapons Deployments in Europe Amid NATO Security Concerns - Modern Diplomacy

The article reports that the United States is weighing expanding its nuclear hosting in Europe beyond the six NATO partners, potentially stationing dual-capable aircraft in additional countries such as those on NATO’s eastern frontier, as part of a broader assessment of NATO’s deterrence posture amid rising Eastern European security concerns, though no decision is imminent and any move would require extensive consultations and approvals.

Sana Khan
1 day ago

Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson: Iran Will Test a Nuclear Weapon – Judge Andrew Napolitano – Judging Freedom

Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson claims Iran will test a nuclear weapon, stating there was a direct message from the Pakistani foreign minister to Senator Marco Rubio suggesting a possible Iranian demonstration with a nuclear device, though Johnson is still seeking confirmation on whether the weapon was produced by Iran or acquired from another source.

written by Kyle Anzalone
1 day ago

Russia Hits Strategic Ceiling With Attacks, Strikes, and Bluffs - Jamestown

The Jamestown article argues that Russia’s intensified missile and drone attacks, coupled with nuclear brinksmanship (including tests and exercises), are not achieving intimidation in Europe but are spurting greater regional defense cooperation (air defense, anti-drone, and broader deterrence) while each high-casualty strike degrades Russia's military and reveals elite disarray.

Comments (1)

@JayR

4mo ago

Not happening