Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
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Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to Yes if North Korea detonates a nuclear explosive device (nuclear weapon test) on or before December 31, 2026.
In practice, a “Yes” means that a nuclear test by the DPRK is detected and officially confirmed during the period 2024–2026. Such confirmation would typically come via seismic detection and analysis by international monitors (e.g. CTBTO/IMS), accompanied by acknowledgement from governments or the North Korean state media.
Any nuclear test – whether underground, atmospheric, or underwater – counts, as long as it’s clear that North Korea successfully set off a nuclear yield.
Regular ballistic missile launches without a nuclear warhead do not count, and neither would non-nuclear “subcritical” experiments. The test must involve an actual nuclear chain reaction (fission/fusion explosion). If North Korea does not conduct a confirmed nuclear test by the end of 2026, the market resolves No.
News
North Korea: Kim Jong Un re-appointed as general secretary at party congress - BBC News
Kim Jong Un has been re-appointed as general secretary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party during a congress in Pyongyang, where he emphasized the need to improve the economy and living standards while continuing to advance the country's nuclear capabilities amidst ongoing international sanctions.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation: March 2016
The article analyzes a mock-up of a miniaturized nuclear warhead displayed by North Korea, detailing its dimensions, potential weight, explosive lens configuration, and the technical aspects of its design, amidst ongoing tensions regarding the country's nuclear capabilities.
Posted by jabKim Jong Un reelected as North Korean party leader, praised for nuke stance | NK News
Kim Jong Un has been reelected as the leader of North Korea's ruling party, receiving commendation for his stance on nuclear weapons.
davidchoiKim reelected to top post of North Korea’s ruling party as it hails his nuclear buildup | AP News
Kim Jong Un has been reelected to the top position of North Korea's ruling party, which is celebrating his ongoing nuclear weapons development as a key achievement.
Kim reelected as party chief, but NK avoids direct message to Seoul, US - The Korea Herald
Kim Jong-un has been reelected as the head of North Korea's ruling party, yet the regime has refrained from delivering any direct communications to South Korea or the United States.
Jung Min-kyungKim Jong-un Re-elected General Secretary, Nuclear Forces Cited
Kim Jong-un has been re-elected as General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, with North Korea emphasizing the enhancement of its nuclear forces as a key justification for his continued leadership.
(LEAD) N. Korea's Kim reelected as general secretary of ruling party for reinforcing nuclear power | Yonhap News Agency
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been reelected as the general secretary of the ruling Workers' Party, emphasizing the country's commitment to strengthening its nuclear capabilities.
Park BoramComments (1)
@JayR
1mo ago
Not happening