Will India Become the World’s Third-Largest Economy by 2028?

This market resolves to Yes if, by the end of 2028, India is recognized as the world’s third-largest national economy in terms of nominal GDP.

In practical terms, a “Yes” resolution requires that India’s gross domestic product (in current USD) has overtaken that of any country except the United States and China by 2028. The key comparison is with the economies currently ahead of India other than those two – namely Japan and Germany. If by 2028 India’s GDP surpasses that of both Japan and Germany (making India rank #3 globally), the criterion is met.

Confirmation can come from widely-cited annual GDP data (e.g. from the IMF or World Bank) or other official statistics released by early 2029 showing India in third place.

GDP is measured at market exchange rates (nominal USD, not purchasing power parity). A Yes requires India to clearly hold the third spot – a mere quarterly fluctuation or statistical tie at #3 would not count unless it is reflected in authoritative year-end rankings. If India remains fourth or lower through 2028, the market resolves No.