Event Image
December 31, 2027
Vol: $3

Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

Outcome

%Chance

Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

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Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2027, the People’s Republic of China launches a full-scale military offensive intended to seize control of territory governed by Taiwan (the Republic of China).

In other words, a Chinese attack aiming to invade and occupy Taiwan’s main island or any of its inhabited outlying islands (e.g. Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) by the end of 2027 will satisfy a “Yes” resolution. Uninhabited islets or purely symbolic incidents (without major combat) would not count. The invasion attempt must be evidenced by official confirmations (from China, Taiwan, the U.N., or a major power) or a broad consensus of credible reporting that an outright military invasion of Taiwan has begun.

Incidents short of an actual invasion do not count. Mere naval blockades, limited missile strikes, or isolated clashes that do not amount to a full-fledged attempt to conquer Taiwanese territory will resolve this market to “No.” In essence, Yes requires a war scenario in which China’s forces explicitly move to take Taiwanese land by force.

If no such invasion is underway by the end of 2027, the market resolves to No.

News

about 7 hours ago

What China hears in Hegseth's Shangri-La Dialogue speech - The Business Times

China observers say US rhetoric at Hegseth’s Shangri-La speech signals a softer, more “constructive” China-US relationship focused on strategic stability, while the US hints at continued arms sales to Taiwan and Indonesian security ties, amid ongoing tensions over military spending, regional access, and the Malacca Strait.

Yew Lun Tian
1 day ago

Booker winner Yáng Shuāng-zǐ warns against Taiwanese 'identity crisis' amid Beijing threat - The Lagos Review

Booker winner Yáng Shuāng-zǐ warns of a Taiwanese identity crisis amid Beijing’s threats, linking art and politics, and highlighting Taiwan’s progressive LGBTQ+ rights while her novel Taiwan Travelogue—a Mandarin Chinese-language work about a colonial-era queer romance—becomes the first Mandarin original to win the International Booker Prize.

Toni Kan
1 day ago

KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's US Visit and China Policy Analysis - News Usa Today

Cheng Li-wun, head of Taiwan's KMT, plans a June U.S. visit framed as a “peace mission,” but critics argue the trip highlights a realignment of the KMT’s relevance amid Washington’s shift toward resilience and deterrence, concerns over Beijing leveraging any dialogue, and potential impacts on Taiwan’s defense posture and the global semiconductor supply chain.

World Editor: Soraya Benali
1 day ago

China’s YY-20 Aerial Refueler Spotted Near Taiwan - The National Interest

China’s YY-20 aerial refueling tanker was photographed mid-air refueling two J-16 fighters during a May 24–26 PLA operation near Taiwan’s ADIZ, underscoring China’s growing long-range, sustained air power capability to pressure Taiwan and signal enhanced coordination between tankers and fighters as part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

Harrison Kass
1 day ago

Unveiling Trump’s Covert Strategy: A Naval Armada and 2,500 Marines Set to Oust Castro in Cuba Invasion! - Flying Eze

A former intelligence official claims Trump has a detailed plan to invade Cuba with a naval task force and 2,500 Marines, using aircraft carriers and landing craft to seize Havana, with potential airstrikes and rapid ground operations to topple the regime, while Cuba mobilizes its population and militia in response.

1 day ago

Pentagon chief sounds ‘alarm’ over China’s buildup, urges allies to boost defence spend | Quews News

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Asian allies to boost defense spending to 3.5% of GDP and build a stronger, self-reliant network to deter China’s rising military power, while signaling a shift away from U.S. subsidies and stressing the importance of alliance burden-sharing, ongoing U.S.–China military engagement, and a potential return to strikes on Iran if diplomacy fails.

Reuters
1 day ago

Central bank likely to leave interest rates steady for 9th straight quarter - Focus Taiwan

Taiwan’s central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged for the 9th straight quarter at the June 18 policy meeting, citing strong AI-driven growth but aiming to avoid tightening amid inflation pressures and a CPI forecast below 2%, with potential spillovers from global hawkish moves and concerns about consumer credit and the housing market.

(By Pan Tzu-yu and Frances Huang) Enditem/cs
1 day ago

Policy on Taiwan arms sales unchanged   | The Manila Times

The article reports that Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth maintained there has been no change in U.S. policy on Taiwan arms sales, despite a pause in weapons deliveries to Taiwan to preserve munitions for Iran operations, while noting U.S. stocks are in a strong position and future sales will resume when the administration deems it necessary.

Agence France-Presse
1 day ago

Taiwan’s 9.6% GDP Growth Reveals World’s Most Concentrated Bet on AI Capex | AI | based.info

Taiwan’s 2026 GDP is forecast to grow 9.64%, the fastest since 2010, driven almost entirely by AI-related semiconductor exports (now 92% of leading-edge chip production) and hyperscaler AI capex (about $725 billion in 2026), a concentration that boosts growth but creates macro and geopolitical risk due to Taiwan’s economic dependence on a single product cycle and the potential for a sudden drop in AI spending.

1 day ago

台灣真有400萬人願被統一?黃暐瀚對比民調曝避戰心理 揭2028勝負關鍵

兩岸關係民調顯示,若以「和平統一」或「一國兩制」作前提,支持比例在美麗島電子報數據中約為22.4%(約400萬人),但陸委會民調在相同議題下的支持度大幅降低至9.1%或更低,顯示題目設計與情境認知影響顯著,民眾核心價值為維護主權與民主、同時具避戰防禦心理,成為2028大選的核心戰略分水嶺。

Comments (2)

@KarlMarx

Reasoning
Bought
1 Noshares @ 0.76¢

4mo ago

Even if China ultimately escalates to a full-blown invasion, it won't be until a couple of years at least. End of 2027 seems like a rather short timeline.

@meruemgungi

Reasoning
Bought
4 Yesshares @ 0.26¢

4mo ago

It seems like AGI systems are on the horizon. Once the Chinese government sees evidence for all cognitive labor being automated, which should happen by end of 2026, compute will become the main bottleneck to scale their dominance.