Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?

This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in conflict by a nation-state or non-state actor as an act of war, attack, or terrorism.

To resolve Yes, all of the following must be true:

1. A nuclear weapon (fission or fusion-based explosive device) is intentionally detonated against a military or civilian target, not as a test, accident, or threat.
2. The detonation is in the context of hostile conflict, defined as:
   • An act of war (e.g., nuclear strike or battlefield use), or
   • A terrorist or insurgent attack involving a nuclear explosive device.
3. The event is publicly confirmed by at least two credible sources, such as:
   • Government or military statements (e.g., Pentagon, UN Security Council, IAEA).
   • Major international media outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press).
   • International monitoring organizations (e.g., CTBTO, SIPRI) confirming the nuclear nature of the explosion.

Excluded scenarios:

• Nuclear tests (e.g., underground or atmospheric trials not intended as conflict acts).
• Accidental detonations (e.g., unintentional launches or mishandlings).
• Failed launches or non-nuclear “dirty bombs” (radiological dispersal without a nuclear blast).
• Mere threats or announcements of intent to use nuclear weapons.

If no qualifying conflict-based nuclear detonation occurs by the end of 2030, the market resolves to No.