Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
By placing order, you agree to Terms & Conditions
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in conflict by a nation-state or non-state actor as an act of war, attack, or terrorism.
To resolve Yes, all of the following must be true:
- A nuclear weapon (fission or fusion-based explosive device) is intentionally detonated against a military or civilian target, not as a test, accident, or threat.
- The detonation is in the context of hostile conflict, defined as:
- An act of war (e.g., nuclear strike or battlefield use), or
- A terrorist or insurgent attack involving a nuclear explosive device.
- The event is publicly confirmed by at least two credible sources, such as:
- Government or military statements (e.g., Pentagon, UN Security Council, IAEA).
- Major international media outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press).
- International monitoring organizations (e.g., CTBTO, SIPRI) confirming the nuclear nature of the explosion.
Excluded scenarios:
- Nuclear tests (e.g., underground or atmospheric trials not intended as conflict acts).
- Accidental detonations (e.g., unintentional launches or mishandlings).
- Failed launches or non-nuclear “dirty bombs” (radiological dispersal without a nuclear blast).
- Mere threats or announcements of intent to use nuclear weapons.
If no qualifying conflict-based nuclear detonation occurs by the end of 2030, the market resolves to No.
News
Noord-Korea vuurt zeker één raket af richting Japan | Buitenlands nieuws
Noord-Korea heeft zeker één raket afgevuurd richting Japan, mogelijk twee ballistische raketten die in de Japanse Zee buiten de territoriale wateren en de exclusieve economische zone terechtkwamen, hetgeen Japan veroordeelt als in strijd met VN-resoluties.
drimble.nlLatest World & National News & Headlines - USATODAY.com
The article highlights Melania Trump denying ties to Jeffrey Epstein amid public remarks and controversy, reflecting ongoing political scrutiny and media attention around her statements.
Latest World & National News & Headlines - USATODAY.com
The article highlights the latest world and national news headlines from USA Today, including stories on Buc-ees’ new gas payment policy backlash, Nicole Kidman’s summer plans, declining American support for Israel per Pew poll, a California warehouse fire affecting Kimberly-Clark’s supply, forecasts on gas prices amid an Iran ceasefire, a sentencing in the Matthew Perry overdose case, political subpoenas related to Epstein, rising ADHD diagnoses among girls, a California incident involving an ICE shooting, Rex Heuermann’s confession to Gilgo Beach killings, and the Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan and China.
Netanyahu beveelt aanvallen op tientallen doelen in Libanon | Buitenlands nieuws
Israëlische premier Benjamin Netanyahu heeft opdracht gegeven tot aanvallen op tientallen doelen in Libanon als reactie op raketbeschietingen vanuit Libanon; de IDF meldde deze aanvalsoffensief enkele uren nadat de raketten waren gelanceerd.
drimble.nlSecretary General Mark Rutte on Threats Facing NATO & Sustaining Alliances | Video | C-SPAN.org
Secretary General Mark Rutte discusses the major threats facing NATO and the importance of sustaining and strengthening allied unity and coordination amid evolving security challenges.
Palm Beach Post: Local News, Politics & Sports in W. Palm Beach, FL
Summary: The Palm Beach Post coverage highlights several key recent developments: Melania Trump denies ties to Jeffrey Epstein and asks Congress for a survivor-hearing; a Democratic congresswoman tours Alligator Alcatraz revealing ICE contractor issues; a man who died heroically saving children from a rip current is remembered as an “angel” in Jupiter/Juno Beach; a Caribbean-flavor BBQ market in downtown West Palm Beach closes; Palm Beach County residents are asked to vote on whether WPB should convert Woodlawn Cemetery into a new Central Park; a Gardens company is pursuing small modular nuclear energy units; Democrats promise an Epstein hearing in Palm Beach and assess whether it will occur; additional local stories include a data-center project update near Loxahatchee and related community gathering at the proposed site.
Middle East truce under threat; oil falls below $100
A fragile Middle East ceasefire appears to be under threat as Israel expands strikes on Lebanon and Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz again, markets react with a drop in Brent crude below $95–$100 while US and Iran negotiate a two-week conditional ceasefire, and tech news highlights Meta’s launch of Muse Spark, its first AI model from a costly in-house team.
USA TODAY - Breaking News and Latest News Today
USA TODAY’s front page curates a mix of breaking national and world news, entertainment, and lifestyle pieces, including updates on a missing American woman in the Bahamas and her husband’s arrest, Iran-related tensions and Trump’s comments, a social-media trend on “vaguebooking,” political jabs within Trump’s circle, and various features across sports, TV, film, and consumer news.
USA TODAY - Breaking News and Latest News Today
This page is a USA TODAY homepage listing multiple current stories across various sections (news, politics, entertainment, sports, etc.), highlighting notable items such as a missing American woman in the Bahamas and her husband’s arrest, ongoing Iran-related updates from Trump, viral social media strain “vaguebooking,” and other top stories and features.
Evansville News, Sports, Weather, Business | Courier & Press
A single sentence summary: The Courier & Press aggregations cover ongoing Evansville-area news including an officer-involved shooting and related charges, a Dubois County sheriff accused of lying in a state police investigation, updates on the Evansville police shooting, pothole and street-marking efforts, and related sports, entertainment, and local events.