Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
Will a Nuclear Weapon Be Used in Conflict by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in conflict by a nation-state or non-state actor as an act of war, attack, or terrorism.
To resolve Yes, all of the following must be true:
- A nuclear weapon (fission or fusion-based explosive device) is intentionally detonated against a military or civilian target, not as a test, accident, or threat.
- The detonation is in the context of hostile conflict, defined as:
- An act of war (e.g., nuclear strike or battlefield use), or
- A terrorist or insurgent attack involving a nuclear explosive device.
- The event is publicly confirmed by at least two credible sources, such as:
- Government or military statements (e.g., Pentagon, UN Security Council, IAEA).
- Major international media outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press).
- International monitoring organizations (e.g., CTBTO, SIPRI) confirming the nuclear nature of the explosion.
Excluded scenarios:
- Nuclear tests (e.g., underground or atmospheric trials not intended as conflict acts).
- Accidental detonations (e.g., unintentional launches or mishandlings).
- Failed launches or non-nuclear “dirty bombs” (radiological dispersal without a nuclear blast).
- Mere threats or announcements of intent to use nuclear weapons.
If no qualifying conflict-based nuclear detonation occurs by the end of 2030, the market resolves to No.
News
As Iran talks stall, Israel and US prepping to renew war as soon as next week – report
Israel and the United States are preparing for renewed military action against Iran, potentially starting as soon as next week, including a intensified bombing campaign, targeting Kharg Island (Iran’s oil-export hub) and efforts to extract nuclear material buried under rubble; U.S. officials also suspect Iran behind a hack of fuel-monitoring systems in several states.
ToI Staff'Not the most cheerful thing I've ever done.' Susan Solomon on the National Academies report on the effects of nuclear war
A National Academies report, released June 25, 2025 and led by MIT’s Susan Solomon, updates knowledge on the environmental effects of nuclear war, noting that urban burning and plume dynamics significantly affect climate and ozone, that regional exchanges could yield meaningful climate impacts despite smaller arsenals, and that multi-model comparisons are needed to address uncertainties amid a changing nuclear landscape and recent US–Iran hostilities.
François Diaz-MaurinAUKUS and North Korea in the Indo-Pacific: 5 Years On – The Diplomat
The article argues that since AUKUS, North Korea has intensified its nuclear and naval capabilities—including enshrining nuclear weapons in its constitution, forging a Russia-backed CSP with military tech transfers, and developing a blue-water navy (including an 8,700-ton nuclear submarine)—driven by perceived strategic deterrence and to counter AUKUS/Japan-SK-US and allied minilaterals, while deterrence has narrowed engagement opportunities and increased risk of miscalculation at sea.
Why outbreak of World War III is still unlikely
A Politico poll shows Americans, Britons, Germans, and French broadly expect a global war within five years, but the likelihood of a World War III involving major powers remains low due to the deterrence and prevalence of non-nuclear means, with Ukraine experiencing heavy casualties while the international rule of law appears weakened but not yet irreversibly collapsed.
Bangkok Post Public Company LimitedIndia Can Mediate Iran-US Conflict: Russian FM Lavrov
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said India could serve as a long-term mediator in the Iran–US conflict, leveraging its diplomatic experience and BRICS chair position to facilitate dialogue among Iran, the UAE, and other stakeholders to avert long-term regional instability.
NaveenTrump suggests deadly Russian strike on Kyiv could set back peace efforts | FMT
Trump suggested that a deadly Russian strike on a Kyiv apartment building that killed 24 people could set back peace efforts in Ukraine, saying the attack complicates efforts to end the war, even as he noted discussions with Xi Jinping about wanting the fighting to end.
ReutersXi made a historical reference as a warning to Trump. What is the Thucydides Trap? - 15-May-2026 - NZ International news
Xi Jinping referenced the Thucydides Trap during a meeting with Donald Trump to warn of the risk that a rising China could clash with US dominance, highlighting the ancient Athens–Sparta dynamic and urging steps to manage tensions and avoid war while pursuing a new major-country relationship.
IAEA warns of expansion in North Korea’s nuclear weapons capabilities | Caliber.Az
The IAEA warned that North Korea is significantly expanding its nuclear weapons production capacity, potentially adding a new uranium enrichment facility alongside existing reprocessing at Yongbyon, with signs of broader infrastructure expansion and several dozen warheads estimated, while no evidence of Russian technology usage was found.
Буданов оцінив імовірність того, що РФ завдасть ядерного удару
Кирило Буданов заявив, що Росія має можливість завдати ядерного удару в будь-який момент і на будь-яку відстань, але поки не має ознак підготовки до удару; загроза зберігається через наявний ядерний потенціал РФ.
Марія НіколаєнкоBRICS talks end without joint statement as divisions over Iran war deepen | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera
BRICS failed to issue a joint statement after a two-day meeting in New Delhi due to internal divisions over the Iran war, with member countries debating Middle East actions, while the bloc reiterated its push for global governance reforms and discussed Gaza, Lebanon, Sudan, Syria, and other regional issues.
Daniel Khalili-Tari