Event Image
December 31, 2029
Vol: $6

Will a Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?

Outcome

%Chance

Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?

--

Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?

Balance: $0.0

By placing order, you agree to Terms & Conditions

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2029, any fusion energy reactor succeeds in generating net positive electrical power to an electrical grid.

In practice, that means a fusion plant must deliver ≥50 MW of net electrical power (after internal loads) to a commercial power grid for at least 1 continuous hour (beyond just breakeven in an experiment) before 2030.

A confirmed grid connection delivering ≥50 MW of fusion-generated power (even after ramp-up) will count. The achievement must be confirmed by at least one of:

  1. a grid operator / ISO / utility statement
  2. the operator/company’s official release, or
  3. a major newswire report citing either (1) or (2)

If no such grid-fed fusion power is achieved on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59:59 UTC, the market resolves No.

News

1 day ago

Inside the design and construction of the future of nuclear energy with Last Energy - Autodesk Foundation

Last Energy is advancing modular, 20-megawatt nuclear reactors designed for rapid manufacturing and on-site assembly, using Autodesk-enabled digital workflows (Inventor, Fusion, AutoCAD) for rapid prototyping and scalable production, with a fully integrated nuclear island containment and a 2024 Autodesk Foundation investment supporting software access and training to accelerate deployment for baseload energy in hard-to-abate industries.

Autodesk Foundation Team
1 day ago

Inside AMPERA’s Bet on Subcritical Thorium Microreactors - Yahoo News UK

AMPERA is developing factory-produced, containerized subcritical thorium breeder microreactors powered by external neutron generators, enabling on/off operation with rapid power changes, aiming for a non-fueled prototype by 2026 to serve data centers, defense, and maritime shipping, built around thorium fuel that is bred to uranium-233 inside the core.

1 day ago

Iran war reality check: Global markets still dictate American energy prices

Global oil and gas price spikes during the Iran conflict illustrate that global markets, not just U.S. production, drive prices despite energy dominance, but long-term independence could come from domestic nuclear power (TerraPower’s Natrium and small modular reactors) and potentially fusion, which would decouple electricity from chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

Cecilia Fassett
1 day ago

GB Energy 40m investment and DESNZ 46.5m grant | Company Announcement | Investegate

ITM Power secured a £40 million equity investment from Great British Energy and a £46.5 million DESNZ grant to establish a 1 GW Chronos electrolyser manufacturing line in the UK, improve FY26 cash guidance to £210–£215 million, with the grant subject to subsidy control scrutiny expected to conclude in June 2026.

Investegate
1 day ago

UK approves EDF's 800MW Springwell Solar Farm

UK-approved EDF power solutions UK and Luminous Energy’s 800MW Springwell Solar Farm in Lincolnshire, planned to power over 180,000 homes, begin construction after a DCO approval, with completion targeting export to the national grid by 2029 and additional community benefits, as part of the UK’s push to expand homegrown, affordable solar energy.

Shree Mishra
1 day ago

Antares moves closer to criticality test of its microreactor at INL | Local News | postregister.com

Antares Industries has received DOE approval of the Documented Safety Analysis for its Mark-0 microreactor at Idaho National Laboratory and is entering the final readiness phase toward achieving criticality, with preparations and regulatory reviews underway ahead of a July 4 target.

ALLEN THAYER athayer@postregister.com
1 day ago

Norway could get nuclear power, but not before the 2040s - NordiskPost

Norway could pursue nuclear power, but a government commission says it would take until the mid-2040s to produce electricity and, given high costs and the need for a full regulatory and institutional framework, nuclear power is not commercially viable today and should only be considered for energy needs beyond 2050.

Malthe Pedersen
1 day ago

Fusion Startup Avalanche Energy Builds Nuclear Battery for DARPA

Avalanche Energy, a Seattle fusion startup, secured a DARPA contract to develop radiation-to-electricity conversion materials—batteries that convert fusion radiation into usable power, aiming to speed the commercialization of fusion energy.

C3 Staff
1 day ago

Inside AMPERA’s Bet on Subcritical Thorium Microreactors

AMPERA is developing containerized, subcritical thorium breeder microreactors that rely on external neutron generators to sustain fission, enabling on/off rapid power control, faster restart, and a factory-produced, non-fueled prototype aimed for three initial markets (data centers, defense, and maritime shipping) with a target of a 30 MWe unit and a prototype by end of 2026.

Aaron Larson
1 day ago

Renewables Reenvisioned: How Linea Energy Built a 7-GW Renewable Pipeline in Under Two Years

Linea Energy, led by Cassidy DeLine, is rapidly building a 7+ GW renewable pipeline in about two years by front-loading technology and data-driven, risk-adjusted development (including acquisitions and greenfield projects), often advancing without PPAs to avoid cost-uncertainty, while expanding storage and data-center-focused projects to smooth rapid grid loads and leverage evolving capital markets.

Aaron Larson

Comments (0)