Will a Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?
Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?
Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2029, any fusion energy reactor succeeds in generating net positive electrical power to an electrical grid.
In practice, that means a fusion plant must deliver ≥50 MW of net electrical power (after internal loads) to a commercial power grid for at least 1 continuous hour (beyond just breakeven in an experiment) before 2030.
A confirmed grid connection delivering ≥50 MW of fusion-generated power (even after ramp-up) will count. The achievement must be confirmed by at least one of:
- a grid operator / ISO / utility statement
- the operator/company’s official release, or
- a major newswire report citing either (1) or (2)
If no such grid-fed fusion power is achieved on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59:59 UTC, the market resolves No.
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