Will a $1B+ Company Have an AI as CEO by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will a $1B+ Company Have an AI as CEO by 2030?
Will a $1B+ Company Have an AI as CEO by 2030?
Will a $1B+ Company Have an AI as CEO by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2029, a publicly traded company worth over $1 billion USD appoints a non-human AI system as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and openly acknowledges it as such. The AI must effectively be the top executive (either of the entire company or of a major listed subsidiary) with the title of CEO.
Market cap will be determined using the company’s closing market capitalization on the primary listing exchange on the appointment date (or previous trading day if announced on a non-trading day). Notably, one instance would satisfy this: for example, if a billion-dollar company announces its new CEO is an AI persona, we would resolve Yes.
Cases where an AI is given a symbolic “assistant” role or a title in name only (without genuine executive authority) would not count – the company must present the AI as running leadership decisions. If no qualifying AI CEO is appointed by end of 2029, the market resolves No.
News
AI's "centaur phase" consumes Silicon Valley
The article discusses the emergence of AI's "centaur phase" in Silicon Valley, where engineers, aided by autonomous AI agents, are transforming software development, creating a significant divide between those leveraging these technologies and those who are not, with predictions that this hybrid phase may be short-lived as AI systems could soon surpass human capabilities.
Zachary Basu,Madison MillsThe leadership skills AI can’t replace - Fast Company
The article discusses how, despite AI's ability to analyze data and generate strategies, essential leadership skills such as clarity, judgment, and meaning-making remain irreplaceable, as they are crucial for understanding the emotional and cultural implications of decisions in a rapidly evolving technological landscape.
Jeff BurninghamOpenAI builds consulting alliances around enterprise rollout: Trial Balance | CFO.com
OpenAI is forming strategic partnerships with major consulting firms like Accenture, BCG, Capgemini, and McKinsey & Company to enhance its enterprise AI initiatives.
Lauren MuskettAnthropic’s $380 Billion Valuation Marks A Turning Point For Enterprise AI | Crowdfund Insider
Anthropic's recent valuation of $380 billion signifies a pivotal moment for enterprise AI, highlighting its growing influence and potential in the technology sector.
Omar FaridiFinancial Review - Business, Finance and Investment News | afr.com
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, acknowledges the potential impact of AI on employment, expressing concerns that advancements in technology could threaten jobs, including his own, while also highlighting the launch of a new interface for businesses to manage AI bots.
David WroeOpenAI Compute Spend Could Hit $600 Billion by 2030
OpenAI's compute spending is projected to reach $600 billion by 2030, with anticipated revenues exceeding $280 billion, as the company aligns its expenditures with growth expectations following significant infrastructure commitments and ongoing funding efforts.
PYMNTSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman warns world is unprepared for superintelligence in his India AI summit speech
In his speech at the AI summit in India, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned that the world is unprepared for the rapid emergence of superintelligence, predicting it could be developed within two years and could surpass human capabilities in leadership roles.
David Wroe