Which Party Will Win the U.S. House in 2026?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Republicans
Republicans
Democrats
Democrats
Resolution Criteria
This event is resolved via two parallel markets – one for each major party’s chance at winning the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Each market resolves to Yes if that party wins a majority of U.S. House seats as a result of the 2026 general election, and No if they do not:
- Democrats: Resolves Yes if the Democratic Party gains or retains control of the House by winning at least 218 of the 435 House seats in the November 3, 2026 elections (i.e. a majority when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027). Otherwise resolves No.
- Republicans: Resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins at least 218 seats (and thus a majority) in the 2026 House elections. Otherwise No.
If neither party alone wins an outright majority (for example, in the extremely unlikely scenario that third-party/independent candidates prevent both Democrats and Republicans from reaching 218 seats), then both markets would resolve to No – as neither party would “win the House” on its own. The outcome will be verified by official election results and the party composition when the new House convenes (sources such as the Clerk of the House or Library of Congress roll call data).
News
Special elections pattern suggests GOP could face rout in midterms - Salon.com
Recent special elections indicate that Democrats are outperforming expectations in traditionally Republican districts, raising concerns that the GOP may face significant losses in the upcoming 2026 midterms.
Garrett OwenCongressional Competition Index Q4: The Battlefield Sharpens
The Congressional Competition Index Q4 report reveals a growing electoral battlefield for the 2026 cycle, with 113 competitive seats identified, yet a significant gap remains as many districts lack strong challengers despite balanced fundraising efforts between Democrats and Republicans.
Dan ConwayPoll: Most say state of the union isn't strong and U.S. is worse off : NPR
A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reveals that most Americans believe the state of the union is weak and that the country is worse off than a year ago, indicating significant political challenges for President Trump ahead of his upcoming State of the Union address.
Domenico MontanaroDemocrats look deep into Trump country for 2026 House pickups
Democrats are targeting Republican-held districts that heavily supported Trump in 2024, expanding their potential pickup opportunities from 39 to 44 seats in their bid to regain control of the House in the 2026 elections, with a focus on candidates in districts won by Trump by significant margins.
Andrew Solender